A Supreme Court decision could come as soon as Monday in the case about whether former President Donald Trump can be kicked off the ballot over his efforts to undo his defeat in the 2020 election.
Realistically they’re going to look at precedent, how it was used in the past. The cases where it’s been used in the past fall into two groups - public officials of the Confederacy and people convicted in criminal court of an appropriate charge (which includes one case of someone being convicted of a Jan 6 related charge and before that the last application was a case in 1919 of someone convicted under the Espionage Act).
I fully expect them to say that barring holding a public position in a group whose purpose violates 14A that they would require a criminal conviction. Because that’s the only thing that fits precedent.
The alternative that people seem to be hoping for is that a candidate should be able to be barred from the ballot if a state judge feels it’s likely enough they violated 14A, where “likely enough” isn’t clearly defined (and doesn’t require any particular due process) but is definitely enough to bar Trump. I just don’t think that’s going to happen.
Realistically they’re going to look at precedent, how it was used in the past. The cases where it’s been used in the past fall into two groups - public officials of the Confederacy and people convicted in criminal court of an appropriate charge (which includes one case of someone being convicted of a Jan 6 related charge and before that the last application was a case in 1919 of someone convicted under the Espionage Act).
I fully expect them to say that barring holding a public position in a group whose purpose violates 14A that they would require a criminal conviction. Because that’s the only thing that fits precedent.
The alternative that people seem to be hoping for is that a candidate should be able to be barred from the ballot if a state judge feels it’s likely enough they violated 14A, where “likely enough” isn’t clearly defined (and doesn’t require any particular due process) but is definitely enough to bar Trump. I just don’t think that’s going to happen.