Just how useful is a forecast in a knife-edge election like this one, anyway? Even the insight that it could go either way is useful, Silver argues. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter” – that giggle again – “but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”
And while he fears a Trump win – “There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened, right?” – he warns against painting it as an existential threat to democracy, at least as a political strategy. “The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman”. He worries, though, that she has “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him]. I guess she kind of had to.”
I’m glad I’m a dual citizen, but I’m not sure how easily I’ll get my wife over to the UK.
This is exactly my situation. My kids and I could move over there easily and in an instant, legally. But I’m not sure what the process is for my wife.
Also, there’s more to moving to another country than just the legality (and that aspect alone is insurmountable for many unsuspecting people). You’re talking about leaving/moving/selling all your belongings, vehicle(s), possibly also a home. And going through the whole process of getting a new job, new schools, cultural shock for kids. And transferring money over, setting up be accounts, etc. And dealing with starting from scratch with credit scores and such. And all that would involve moving back to a country that has its own pretty profound struggles right now. It’s a massive headache. But it’s something we are definitely considering.
I know, it’s a really big problem. But my daughter is queer, so if Trump wins, she and I are getting out before Trump takes office. We’ll just have to figure out the rest after that. Thankfully, I have friends and family over there who would be able to help.