For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.
I think you’ll find the same number of people saying that polls are meaningless and to just vote in any of these “poll says” threads.
Absolutely but polls one way get huge upvotes and polls the other get huge downvotes.