Niger’s president hid behind a bulletproof door of his official residence and talked over a phone he assumed was monitored. To anxious French and American allies, he repeated assurances that the army would soon rescue him from an unfolding coup. 

Outside the ground floor safe room Mohamed Bazoum had recently renovated to protect himself from such an event, mutineers from his presidential guard fanned out across the presidency compound, furious about a proposal to replace their longstanding commander, according to Nigerien, U.S. and European officials. Hunkered over the phone beside his wife and son, Bazoum delicately encouraged advisers to send the army’s regular units.

At around noon, his cellphone rang with a call from a former U.S. ambassador, who was about to board a flight on his vacation. The ambassador was worried one of Washington’s closest allies in Africa could become the latest in a string of regional states to fall into the hands of coup leaders sympathetic to Russia. Everything is fine, the imprisoned president carefully intoned. 

A week later, Bazoum is still imprisoned in his palace, junta leaders are seeking aid from Vladimir Putin’s regional partners and America is on the verge of losing its most important ally in a crucial and unstable part of Africa. An obscure personnel dispute within Niger’s presidential guard has now become what appears to be a geopolitical win for Russia and its Wagner Group paramilitary company in their bid to flip Western allies.

The situation could yet turn into open military conflict. Eleven West African countries, led by Nigeria, have threatened to use force to restore Bazoum to power if the coup isn’t reversed by Sunday. In return, the pro-Russian leaders of Mali and Burkina Faso have vowed to defend Niger. Officials in the U.S. and Europe are scrambling for ways to return Bazoum to power but concede the window is closing.

The Kremlin on Friday warned against any intervention.

The coup, if successful, could lead Russia to pick up some of America’s most important drone bases, used to fly missions across the Sahara between Libya and Nigeria. Wagner’s mercenaries have previously taken over former U.S. and French outposts in Syria and Mali.

This outcome wasn’t predestined. A week of missteps and communication breakdowns pushed the vast nation of Niger toward Russia. Nigerien, American, European and other West African security officials, as well as Nigerien soldiers, described a series of unexpected blunders that now threatens to turn West Africa into a theater for regional war. 

Washington, caught without key personnel in its Africa posts, failed to anticipate what is now the seventh coup in the region since 2020—not including a failed attempt in Niger two years ago. While Bazoum sat in his safe room calling for help, America and its allies struggled to react as the conflict escalated into threats of war between Russian-backed countries and West Africa’s biggest military, Nigeria. 

The U.S. has spent more than $500 million arming and equipping Niger’s military. Yet the country’s special forces, trained for nearly every counterterrorism eventuality, had no answer for Sunday’s coup—West Africa’s most enduring security threat. The forces were left chatting over WhatsApp groups over whether to intervene. The U.S. and Europe have made Niger the centerpiece of their fight against the spread of Islamic State and al Qaeda in Africa’s Sahel, a 3,000-mile semiarid territory on the southern shore of the Sahara that also includes Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad. They are some of the world’s poorest and fastest-growing populations, in failing states. Nearly half of Niger’s budget comes from foreign aid.