The US military is planning for a potential sustained campaign against Iran should President Donald Trump order an attack, two senior US officials told Reuters.
The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, emphasised that the move could trigger a significant Iranian retaliation, risking a prolonged regional conflict which could be far more serious than previous confrontations.
They added, without providing detail, that US strikes would not just target nuclear infrastructure, but also Iranian state and security facilities. US attacks on the country last year primarily targeted nuclear sites.
The only way it would last only weeks is if the US navy gets repelled or destroyed without ever touching boots on Iranian soil. There is no scenario in which the war lasts only weeks and the US wins. One or both of these propositions necessarily has to be false.
Well there is the scenario where they decapitate the government and sue for peace with whoever replaces it and that person gives it to them. A Venezuela type scenario where they agree to decouple from China, give US a veto of where Iranian oil is shipped and give US some tribute money and US in turn removes sanctions, doesn’t bomb them any more and so on. Of course Iran is significantly more a power than Venezuela so it seems less likely this happens but Iran also doesn’t really win from a prolonged fight with the US so it still seems a strong possibility. Trump would have to give them economic relief in the form of removing some sanctions but I think they might go for it unfortunately.
I don’t believe this is likely.
Your comparison with Venezuela here neglect just how vastly different the 2 situations are. Not only is Venezuela far weaker militarily, they are also far closer to the US and their only trade routes to Eurasia are by boat which the US navy can easily intercept. Meanwhile Iran is on the same continent as China and Russia’s immense supply chains and industrial bases, they have a huge industrial base of their own, they mostly make their own weapons, they have huge sea and land trade networks.
Between the western economies making it clear to the whole world that they are now a sinking ship and the fact that even if the US can somehow block the maritime routes between Iran and China, Iran would still have land roads that the US has no ability to blockade whatsoever; making such a deal would make no sense for Iran.
Yes, Iran would not win from a prolong fight with the US, but they not lose from it either, in fact they are likely able to sustain the attrition of that kind of fight for far longer than the US could, especially with Chinese and Russian supply chains being right there on the same continent as them.
As to Russia, Azerbaijan is firmly in zionist pockets and helped them stage an attack on Iran last time, Armenia has fallen out of favor with Russia as well thanks to US efforts.
The bigger problem with Russia is they’re at capacity dealing with Ukraine. If they had more weapons to spare they would have been using them to pound Ukrainian forces and advance their own lines and positions for negotiations. They can’t spare much without dipping into stockpiles they’re likely keeping in reserve in case of the emergency of the EU maniacs going to war with them. They can maybe give Iran raw materials but can’t help if the US were to bomb those locations.
Putin is also being played by Trump to not react to these things beyond words because Putin wants Trump to help with a ceasefire, a negotiated exit, otherwise Ukraine can keep building drones and doing terror attacks into Russia for the next 10 years no problem and Russia has no appetite to entirely occupy Ukraine so they must have a negotiated end. That and perhaps he thinks he can get sanctions relief. For all the talk of a turn towards the east being permanent, Russia’s bourgeoisie still keep glancing at the west and you know they hunger for the EU markets and to be a Eur-Asian power.
As to China, the B&R is a single rail link though several countries that are in bed with the US and the US could kill that by leaning on them. Even just slowing up shipments with bureaucratic paperwork would buy the US weeks to work. Nor has China shown a great appetite for crossing the US on matters such as these when it’s going in for the kill. They’ll sell to Iran but they won’t solve the Iranian logistical problems for them if the US leans on countries in-between to stop the shipments and likely won’t put their air force planes in danger to fly in deliveries under a US air campaign.
But the more important thing here is Iran has no resolve or desire to fight the US. Their liberal leadership, their domestic bourgeoisie desperately want reintegration with the west. If the US punches them they’ll look to land a symbolic blow back that might not even be on the US itself and then to go to the negotiating table and take some sort of deal. After China refuses to directly intervene on their behalf they’ll probably think it acceptable to agree to screw them at the US behest if the US offers even minor sanctions relief.
They have no appetite for a long confrontation with the US and no ability without suffering the crushing the living conditions of their people. Decapitate and remove some of the religious hardliners and more liberal types who favor reintegration with the west could very well take their places and choose an off-ramp as they have the past few confrontations with the US and “israel”. They’ve swallowed poison pills before in their own words. But as religious conservatives and liberals there is nothing they can do to fix their country’s economy and the increasing anger and misery of their people under western sanctions. So they either take a deal now and maybe the power structures and people in place survive and thrive under a loosening of the noose or they stand proud and collapse under sanctions in 5 years. Democrats have signaled they’re behind it, Nancy Pelosi called for pain for the Iranian people so they know a Dem president that follows Trump won’t save them. So why not make a deal?