1st Proposal
In the first proposal, sources told Charania, 18 teams --the bottom 10 that miss the play-in tournament, and the eight that qualify for it – all will be part of the draft lottery•
The bottom 10 teams will all have an equal 8% chance of moving up in the lottery, with the remaining 20% of the odds being split among the eight play-in teams in descending order from 11th through 18th.
All 18 spots would be drawn as part of the lottery in that format.
2nd Proposal
In the second proposal, sources told Charania, 22 teams - the bottom 10 teams that miss the play-in tournament, the eight that qualify for it and the four playoff teams that lose in the first round – will all be included in the lottery, and will be ranked according to their record across two seasons. The last part, weighting teams by their record across the prior two seasons, is how the WNBA weights its lottery system.
Under that system, each team would need to reach a minimum win total floor in each season, to mitigate the need to lose every game possible. For example, if the minimum floor for an individual season was 20 wins, a team that went 14-68 would be 20-62 for lottery purposes. And if a team wins 40 games one season and 20 games the next season, it would go in as 30 wins for the lottery.
In this system, the top four spots would be drawn as part of the lottery, as is currently.
3rd Proposal
The third proposal is a “5 by 5” method, sources told Charania. In this one, the same 18 teams from the first proposal – the bottom 10 that miss the play-in, plus the eight that make it – would be entered into the lottery.
The teams with the five worst records would then all have the same odds, with them descending from there, and there would be a lottery drawing for each of the top five picks in the draft.
After those five picks are selected, there would be another lottery drawing for the remaining 13 teams. If any of the teams with the five worst records didn’t land one of those top five spots – like last season, when the teams with the first (the Utah Jazz), second (Washington Wizards) and fourth (New Orleans Pelicans) worst records all moved back to 5th, 6th and 7th, respectively - the lowest they could wind up in the second lottery drawing would be 10th, preventing a bad team from falling too far down the draft board.
The second proposal is only exactly 22 teams assuming the four play-in teams that make the playoffs actually lose in the first round. If any of them win, then you’ll have more than 22 teams in the lottery.
Other than that minor math issue my biggest complaint with all of these proposals is they all give teams an incentive to have a worse record, they just move the line at where it makes sense to tank. If I’m teetering on a 10 seed and know we’re not winning a championship, why on earth would I play my ass of to get that 10 seed, only to lose my first play in game and be done with much worse chance of landing a top pick?
Good catch on your first point!
I’m wondering how likely it is a team gives up a chance at the play in/play offs and the additional revenue that comes with it for a couple more % at a top pick. Right now we don’t really see teams throwing the first play in round just to get in the lottery so I think it’s unlikely but I do he the concern.
I guess, I mean the gotta do something lol.
I have a few ideas myself
1- The team with the worst record looses their first round pick. After that everything stays the same but now the teams with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th have the same odds and so on.
2- More teams should Bam/Heat it against tanking teams. At first I thought what the Heat did at the end of that game was lame but, the more I sat and thought about it, the Heat were right to cheese it for Bam.
Cause fuck the Wizards. Image you bought tickets to that gsme, how lame would it be if the Heat just won by 40 and sat their starters in the fourth. But now, all those fans will remember when Bam put up 83.
Oh, you’re starting 3 G-League players against the Lakers? Guess what, Luka is putting up 60 shots and going for 110pts tonight. At worst, it give fans something actually worth watching.
3- The team with the worst record after 81 games has to play, and lose to the Harlem Globetrottets the last game of the season. The Globetrottets get all the calls from the refs and will pants your head coach and pie your owner at some point in the game.
I like the proposals. Assuming the league defines a “winning team” not as the team that wins a game but as the team that wins the championship (or the Emirates™ NBA Cup), it makes sense that the 10th worst team and worst team have the same lottery odds, since both have a 0% chance of winning. It also makes sense to let play-in teams randomly move up in the draft, since it can pull a team out of endless mediocrity. I don’t like that the 11th worst team is likely going to have much lower odds. I imagine teams that are headed for the 10th seed in their conference will try to tank down in the standings. A 5% chance of getting the first pick in the draft is probably better than getting to be the visiting team in 1-2 playoff games.
