• ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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    8 days ago

    I maintain that you have to look at the big picture here. The war isn’t between Russia and Ukraine, it’s between the west and the east. And the principle players are the US and China. So, the real question is which bloc can maintain discipline longer. As I’ve said many times before, Russia collapsing or becoming politically unstable would be a disaster for China. They rely on Russian food and energy imports, and Russia protects China’s western flank. If Russia was destabilized or balkanized, then it would become China’s Ukraine. Therefore, it’s obvious that China cannot allow that to happen under any circumstances. If Russia was genuinely in trouble then China would do everything in its power to bail them out. There’s no two ways about it.

    Given this unarguable fact, the next question is who is in a better position to provide support. Can the US help Europe more than China can help Russia? Again, the answer is obvious, China being the industrial superpower, is in a far better position to support Russia materially than the US is to support Europe. In fact, the US itself is largely dependent on Chinese imports to function. And China cutting off critical things like rare earths is already affecting military production in America.

    So, given all that, there’s only one way this war can go. You can look at all the palace intrigue, and the drones, and all the media about attacks on Russia, but what I explain above is the underlying hard reality of the situation. Everything else is just surface noise. If Russia loses then China is fucked, and given that China is the strongest player here that just will not happen.

    And I don’t see what they can do to get out of Iran now. The problem is that Israel is now in an existential crisis, and they will not allow the US to leave. Given the amount of influence Israel has over the US, they will continue to drag them into deeper conflict with Iran. We can already see how the war has restarted and likely to escalate now that the US is attacking stuff like water facilities in Iran.

    I can’t see how anything changes in a major way in Ukraine before autumn, but once the global energy shock hits, that’s when things are going to start moving fast. Right now, the US and other countries are frantically dumping their oil reserves on the market to depress the prices, but those are going to run out very soon. After that there’s just not going to be enough oil to go around.

    • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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      7 days ago

      I maintain that you have to look at the big picture here. The war isn’t between Russia and Ukraine, it’s between the west and the east. And the principle players are the US and China. So, the real question is which bloc can maintain discipline longer. As I’ve said many times before, Russia collapsing or becoming politically unstable would be a disaster for China. They rely on Russian food and energy imports, and Russia protects China’s western flank. If Russia was destabilized or balkanized, then it would become China’s Ukraine. Therefore, it’s obvious that China cannot allow that to happen under any circumstances. If Russia was genuinely in trouble then China would do everything in its power to bail them out. There’s no two ways about it.

      To you, Russia’s defeat means Russia’s capitulation—something that is hardly likely. Yes, you’re right.

      For me, Russia’s defeat means having Nazis left in my city.

      Yes, you are absolutely right: China won’t allow Russia to be defeated, but it has no need for a strong Russia, either.

      Freezing the conflict would be quite acceptable to China. It is also not in China’s interest for the West to lift sanctions on Russia; that is a fact.

      And another fact is that China is profiting handsomely from this war. It sells dual-use goods to both sides of the conflict.

      Yes, I agree that China acts solely in its own interests… its GDP is skyrocketing. China is prospering—that is indisputable.

      Given this unarguable fact, the next question is who is in a better position to provide support. Can the US help Europe more than China can help Russia?

      Yes, if it wanted to, China could help Russia win. But let me repeat: if it wanted to!

      You can see that the US and Europe have essentially gone all-in right now; they are stretched to their limits—especially considering the war in Iraq. Meanwhile, China is taking it easy. Confucianism advocates for victory without a fight. That’s certainly wise.

      I’d like that too—sitting on the couch with popcorn, watching a brutal slaughter, and winning in the process. That’s not something I know how to do; I guess you have to be really smart for that… )))

      If I’d made smart moves like that in my life, I swear to you, I’d be a millionaire by now! There was a time when I could have climbed the ladder of success by stepping right over the heads of my loved ones and partners. I could have shortchanged my workers while raking in huge profits. I thought that was the right way to do things—that somewhere up in heaven, it would be duly recognized… what a naive fool I was!

      But when I suddenly found myself cast aside by life, I had an epiphany. First, I stopped going to church because I realized it only “helps” the rich and successful. Second, I realized that in the capitalist world, you won’t get anywhere if you’re honest, open, and decent—you simply won’t survive. That’s a dogma, Comrade! A Biblical one, at that. ))))

      The capitalist world is a three-headed serpent; the names of those heads are cunning, meanness, and betrayal!

      And I don’t see what they can do to get out of Iran now. The problem is that Israel is now in an existential crisis, and they will not allow the US to leave. Given the amount of influence Israel has over the US, they will continue to drag them into deeper conflict with Iran. We can already see how the war has restarted and likely to escalate now that the US is attacking stuff like water facilities in Iran.

      Yes, I fully agree—however cynical it may sound—that Russia was lucky in this regard.

      but once the global energy shock hits

      In southern Russia, especially in Crimea, people are facing major fuel shortages. I agree with you that this won’t be fatal for the situation at the front, but for the people, it’s a huge problem.

      Listen to this guy—he’s Russian; I’ve marked the spot. Just keep in mind that he might be downplaying the issue, since he’s a Komsomolskaya Pravda correspondent.

      https://youtu.be/hGi66DHc5TI?t=309

      He’s a war correspondent of this caliber:

      https://youtu.be/UoEqtyhCf-g?t=185

      • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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        7 days ago

        I don’t think Russia can stay stable if the conflict is frozen though. That’s just not gonna fly politically, and political instability creates a risk for China in the long term. You gotta keep in mind that Chinese tend to have a very long perspective on things, and they’re not looking for quick wins. They know the west is coming after them next, and they understand perfectly well that the war is bigger than Russia and Ukraine. If they don’t defeat the west here, then the west gets a chance to regroup and try again. This is the same danger Russia and China face here together. And when Russia wins, it’s till going to be highly dependent on China economically which means China will continue to exercise a ton of influence over Russia. On top of that, Chinese will probably get a ton of reconstruction and resource development contracts in Ukraine. All of that cannot happen if there’s a frozen conflict. So, there’s simply way more to gain by winning than letting this fester.

        Letting the war drag out to drain the west certainly does seem to be what China is doing. I think they’re aiming for a comprehensive victory here where the west becomes so depleted that they have to accept a new world order. You say they’re supplying both sides, but here’s what’s actually happening https://www.mining.com/web/us-business-group-says-some-critical-minerals-are-nearly-unobtainable-from-china/

        China cut the west off from critical inputs they need to produce weapons. So, now the west isn’t able to restock what they’ve spent over 4 years in Ukraine and now in Iran. The inventories here keep going down, and there’s nothing the west can do about it lacking its own industries.

        Listen to this guy

        And this is what I was saying about Bunaov being shuffled to the head of the army. The strategy is shifting towards naked terrorism now.

        • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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          5 days ago

          And when Russia wins, it’s till going to be highly dependent on China economically which means China will continue to exercise a ton of influence over Russia.

          There are various possible scenarios. In one of them, Russia wins, and relations with Europe—along with the Nord Stream pipelines—are restored. This scenario is not in China’s interest.

          So, there’s simply way more to gain by winning than letting this fester.

          A moderate victory—that’s optimal for China.

          China cut the west off from critical inputs they need to produce weapons. So, now the west isn’t able to restock what they’ve spent over 4 years in Ukraine and now in Iran. The inventories here keep going down, and there’s nothing the west can do about it lacking its own industries.

          I would really like it to be that way!

          And this is what I was saying about Bunaov being shuffled to the head of the army.

          At the moment, Syrsky is handling his duties reasonably well; he is doing everything he can, regardless of the cost in casualties. So far, however, there have been no major breakthroughs. Besides, one has to hold the front line, not just wage a campaign of terror.

          • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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            5 days ago

            I really can’t see how relations with Europe could be restored at this point. There would have to be a revolution in Europe before that happens.

            And I’m just going by what Zelensky said when Blumenthal visited. They openly stated that they’re going to be shuffling Syrsky out by fall, and it’s clear the directive is coming from the US. It could be that Americans are hoping to transition to something like Chechnya soon.

            • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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              3 days ago

              I really can’t see how relations with Europe could be restored at this point. There would have to be a revolution in Europe before that happens.

              Yes, I agree; the EU looks relatively united right now. Trump has backed down, the global fuel crisis has been averted, and while there will be complications, they won’t be critical—unless Bibi sticks his long nose in again. Because, it seems to me, if the war ends, Netanyahu will be ousted. For him, just as for Zelensky, the end of the war spells political death.

              And Trump has finally realized he can’t break Iran.

              Trump is shifting his focus back to Ukraine. That “dynamic duo” will be heading to Moscow again.

              I don’t get it—isn’t Putin tired of this? Flirting with Trump again, sending warm birthday wishes… The circus act is starting all over again. After his setback with Iran, Trump needs to do something before autumn: either secure peace in Ukraine, attack Cuba, or something similar. I think he’s lost his appetite for war after that last incident, so he’ll opt for “peace” in Ukraine. What leverage he’ll use this time, though, is unclear to me.

              The G7 summit is taking place today, and—as always—Ukraine has crossed yet another red line. There was a massive strike on Moscow. This is bound to happen regularly from now on; things will only escalate.

              Yes, given the unfavorable situation at the front, Ukraine has little choice but to resort to deep-strike attacks and terrorism as a countermeasure. However, this is unlikely to affect the actual frontline; it is aimed at the civilian population to sow fear and create hardships—financial and otherwise. That said, I believe Russia has been preparing for this since winter, back when the blocking of social media platforms began.

              I suspect Putin won’t make any rash moves right now; he has made it clear that he is banking on developments on the ground—at the front. We shall see; perhaps he knows something more.

              They openly stated that they’re going to be shuffling Syrsky out by fall, and it’s clear the directive is coming from the US. It could be that Americans are hoping to transition to something like Chechnya soon.

              If we’re talking about Chechnya, it probably would have been better to make Budanov president and install a military government.

              By the way, there has been a noticeable rise in public opposition to the TCK [military recruitment offices] recently. Something will have to be done about this in the foreseeable future, too. Incidents of mobs beating up TCK officers have become more frequent. I’m not saying this will necessarily lead to an uprising anytime soon, though. It’s just that TCK officers feel very uncomfortable in the city because everyone hates them—both Western and Eastern Ukrainians. It turns out that a common enemy unites both the “Banderites” and the Russian-speaking population of southeastern Ukraine. You can see it all on social media here. There is growing hatred directed at both Zelensky and the TCK. Even those who want Ukraine to win have come to hate Zelensky and the TCK. It’s like a parallel reality here. Everyone here—the ones with “pots on their heads”

              https://youtu.be/H2Pratb_TNw?t=52

              —seems to have developed bipolar disorder.

              I used to say that being American isn’t a nationality, but a diagnosis—back when I listened to American politicians or watched CNN. It was nothing but contradictions. Now I see the same thing happening with Ukrainians. I’ve now fully realized from personal experience what American propaganda is all about.

              If you dig deeper, it’s not even just American propaganda; it’s Goebbels-style propaganda—the kind that turns people not only into schizophrenics but also into cruel, ruthless individuals.

              • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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                3 days ago

                I don’t think the crisis has been averted. It’s going to take a long time before energy prices get back to normal because restarting production can’t happen overnight. Just clearing the backlog of tankers in the gulf is going to take over a year. I also don’t see Israel stopping attacking Lebanon which means the fighting is likely to restart soon.

                Trump wants to get out desperately, but he has no way out because Israel won’t play along. From Russian perspective it makes sense to play along though because it drives Europeans up the wall. And I don’t see what leverage he has left either.

                And completely agree that strikes just serve to remind people in Russia why the war is necessary. The overall situation on the front won’t change, but it will help with firming up public support to remove the threat.

                It does look like Russia is ramping up deep strikes on infrastructure especially now that the US ran out of patriots during their Iran fiasco. I think this will be significant over time, and affect logistics going forward which will accelerate the events on the front.

                I saw a video just yesterday of some kid beating up TCK cause they took his dad. Yes, public is definitely starting to turn on them.

                And American style propaganda does in fact have its origins with Goebbels, I might’ve sent this before. It explains everything very clearly. https://royallib.com/read/artemov_vladimir/psihologicheskaya_voyna_v_strategii_imperializma.html#0

                • Sedan@lemmy.ml
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                  18 hours ago

                  I don’t think the crisis has been averted. It’s going to take a long time before energy prices get back to normal because restarting production can’t happen overnight. Just clearing the backlog of tankers in the gulf is going to take over a year. I also don’t see Israel stopping attacking Lebanon which means the fighting is likely to restart soon.

                  Trump wants to get out desperately, but he has no way out because Israel won’t play along. From Russian perspective it makes sense to play along though because it drives Europeans up the wall. And I don’t see what leverage he has left either.

                  Based on the results of the G7 forum, we see that everything is repeating itself again. Trump has once again been talked into a false sense of security by the European ghouls, along with Zelensky. And all of this is precisely connected to the strikes deep into Russia.

                  Trump has once again sided with Ukraine, and the narrative that Russia must leave the occupied territories has also begun to be heard again. Trump no longer wants peace.

                  Moscow was bombed again today; this will become a frequent occurrence. The drones that strike Russia using artificial intelligence are American Hornet drones, which the US is testing in Ukraine. Yesterday, such a drone hit a bus carrying Belarusian children who were on their way to the Black Sea for a vacation.

                  Regarding fuel, every country has reserves, and until these reserves are replenished, the price of oil will not fall. Yes, the price of oil will remain high for some time. That is, if the agreement is signed. Let’s wait until Friday.

                  And completely agree that strikes just serve to remind people in Russia why the war is necessary.

                  Right now, everyone in Russia is demanding radical measures from Putin. It’s understandable: Everyone’s talking about bridges across the Dnieper. They’re very upset that this hasn’t been done yet. This is what I see in Russian chats and war-related public groups. You understand that after the latest strikes on Moscow, the demands will become louder. No one could have imagined that the war would reach Moscow.

                  It does look like Russia is ramping up deep strike

                  In any case, the blows will be uneven, with the exception of the bridges across the Dnieper.

                  Russia will have to endure.

                  I saw a video just yesterday of some kid beating up TCK cause they took his dad. Yes, public is definitely starting to turn on them.

                  There’s a new trend now: a grandfather with a shovel)))

                  But that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about a recent incident in Kyiv where several hundred people confronted the TCC and the police. The police and the TCC fled. This is the first such mass incident in Kyiv.

                  He’s a very interesting author; I’ve never heard of him.

                  His books are still very relevant today.

                  https://publ.lib.ru/ARCHIVES/A/ARTEMOV_Vladimir_L'vovich/_Artemov_V.L..html

                  • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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                    15 hours ago

                    I don’t think anybody takes what Trump says seriously at this point. He’ll say one thing than another, it literally changes day to day. What matters is that the US is exhausted now. They just lost a major war against Iran, their weapons stocks are depleted, and China has them by the balls. So, Trump is doing a bit of posturing right now, but it’s not going to translate into anything material because the coffers are empty.

                    And I can’t see Russia taking out the bridges because it’s almost certain they plan to use them. The goal of the Europeans is to provoke a big reaction right now so they can rally their public. The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they’re trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

                    Artemov explains everything correctly, and reading his book really helped me see how American propaganda machine works a lot more clearly. The direct inspiration from the nazis and the evolution of the narrative was very interesting to read about as well.