If you’re talking about a true offworld backup to our species, that is a very very long ways away. Even if we were to really take that effort seriously, it would take us millennia before we truly established and independent presence in space.
The key is that it’s not possible to have a non-industrial civilization on a place like Mars. Our cultural model for such things is always the Age of Sale and similar exploratory waves by European imperialists. But this cultural analog is flawed. People could sail from England to the Americas and live off the land once they got there. They could build houses, find food and water, and really form a farmstead with the tools and knowledge they already possessed. They could even cut down local trees and repair the ships they used to get there.
But Mars? There’s nothing there. You want water? You need to build a water purification plant. You want air? You’ll need a huge air cleaning and reclamation system. And all of this will require massive amounts of power. And all of this infrastructure requires vast supply chains to keep, both to build the things and to build the things that build the things.
What this ultimately comes down to is that until you have hundreds of millions of people living on Mars, you can forget any idea of them truly being able to survive without Earth. You could have a million people on Mars. But if Earth collapses, unless Mars is already self-sufficient at that time, the Martians are on borrowed time. Sure, once you start a colony, there will be strong incentives to make Mars as self-sufficient as possible. The transport costs alone will ensure that. But it will be a very, very long time before Mars is self-sufficient in something like, computer chips for example. Every colony would be built from the start with its own water and air systems, but inevitably most of the components for that equipment would be shipped in from Earth. It will be a very long time before such a colony is capable of producing all the tools and equipment it needs to keep operating. And remember, on Mars, going organic farm and returning to the land is never an option. It’s full industrial civilization or death. The planet is not capable of sustain life (or at least life like ours) without extensive technological supplementation.
It may never be doable but it’s worth working toward.
We’re at the point where we ought to be able to maintain a small permanent station on the Moon. Think like ISS but farther away and with some gravity. That will let us answer question like is the moons gravity sufficient to live healthily, or what are the effects of radiation on whatever level of shielding we can afford. It will let us develop all the technologies from power to food, to most especially mining. If we can successfully use local resources for shielding and building, water, air, food, and rocket fuel, then we can afford a larger base or bases
Before we can do more than set boots on mars, there’s a lot of self-sufficiency that needs to be automated and is now only a good idea. When your “emergency resupply” takes nine months, you’d better be confident of no emergencies
If you’re talking about a true offworld backup to our species, that is a very very long ways away. Even if we were to really take that effort seriously, it would take us millennia before we truly established and independent presence in space.
The key is that it’s not possible to have a non-industrial civilization on a place like Mars. Our cultural model for such things is always the Age of Sale and similar exploratory waves by European imperialists. But this cultural analog is flawed. People could sail from England to the Americas and live off the land once they got there. They could build houses, find food and water, and really form a farmstead with the tools and knowledge they already possessed. They could even cut down local trees and repair the ships they used to get there.
But Mars? There’s nothing there. You want water? You need to build a water purification plant. You want air? You’ll need a huge air cleaning and reclamation system. And all of this will require massive amounts of power. And all of this infrastructure requires vast supply chains to keep, both to build the things and to build the things that build the things.
What this ultimately comes down to is that until you have hundreds of millions of people living on Mars, you can forget any idea of them truly being able to survive without Earth. You could have a million people on Mars. But if Earth collapses, unless Mars is already self-sufficient at that time, the Martians are on borrowed time. Sure, once you start a colony, there will be strong incentives to make Mars as self-sufficient as possible. The transport costs alone will ensure that. But it will be a very, very long time before Mars is self-sufficient in something like, computer chips for example. Every colony would be built from the start with its own water and air systems, but inevitably most of the components for that equipment would be shipped in from Earth. It will be a very long time before such a colony is capable of producing all the tools and equipment it needs to keep operating. And remember, on Mars, going organic farm and returning to the land is never an option. It’s full industrial civilization or death. The planet is not capable of sustain life (or at least life like ours) without extensive technological supplementation.
It may never be doable but it’s worth working toward.
We’re at the point where we ought to be able to maintain a small permanent station on the Moon. Think like ISS but farther away and with some gravity. That will let us answer question like is the moons gravity sufficient to live healthily, or what are the effects of radiation on whatever level of shielding we can afford. It will let us develop all the technologies from power to food, to most especially mining. If we can successfully use local resources for shielding and building, water, air, food, and rocket fuel, then we can afford a larger base or bases
Before we can do more than set boots on mars, there’s a lot of self-sufficiency that needs to be automated and is now only a good idea. When your “emergency resupply” takes nine months, you’d better be confident of no emergencies