• 2 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: October 6th, 2023

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  • Well sure, if the electricity is powering something you already need and the waste heat is beneficial, then awesome, I guess that’s free heat. But it’s actually pretty rare that people need to be using that much electricity for anything as consistently as you would need for heating a home. And if you don’t actually need to be using that electricity, there’s really no way around the fact that electric heating is really pretty expensive.

    I guess if you are stuck with electric heating as your only option and a heat pump is out of your price range, then mining crypto could be a nice way to offset the cost of electric heating… But then the equipment costs would add up and you’d probably be better off with a heat pump anyway.


  • Well that’s all true, we don’t actually know what the real filters are, are we already past them, or are they still ahead of us? Certainly people have speculated about this for a long time, and I won’t pretend to have any more real answers than anyone else. But honestly, I’d have a hard time believing that the really rare event, that the great filter lays somewhere between the development of the brain and the development of the kind of intelligence humans have. It just seems like a relatively small jump (relative to all the other hurdles) between many of the smarter animals on earth and human beings. For example, many species use tools a whole lot actually. Only a few other species actually make tools or alter them to a large degree, but you know, give it 10 million years and see if that changes. Likewise, many species have languages, some species even give themselves names, so they can intentionally address other individuals in their social group.

    If you don’t mind a bit of total speculation on my part, in my opinion, the explanation to the Fermi paradox is actually pretty simple, there really is no paradox. Intelligent life is probably relatively common in the universe, the reason we don’t see aliens all over the place is that intelligent life thrives too well for that. Once a species is capable of traveling other stars, it’s just a matter of time before they settle most of their galaxy, like within a million years (which is very quick on evolutionary scales). We’re just the first intelligent life in this galaxy, we can assume this because if there were others, they’d already have colonies right here on earth, because it’s a great planet.

    To double back on the great filter though, my best guess about which events might be truly rare, my money is on Eukaryotic life and mitochondria. That feels like a real freak accident, as well as an absolutely vital requirement for complex life.


  • Well, I’m not sure you’ve considered the time-frames involved in that concern. We have a whole lot of time before the sun goes out on us. It took Earth about 2 billion years to develop multicellular life. It then took another 2.5 b before we got vertebrates. That was the hard part though and it’s done, I don’t think there’s any undoing it. There aren’t many things that could wipe out all forms of vertebrates on earth, so I’m confident that would be as far back as the planet could reasonably be set back by any disaster.

    Just 60 million years ago, mammals were not at all a dominant form of life, yet that’s all it took for early rodent-like mammals to evolve into human beings (as well as all the other mammals we know today). So based on that timeline, if all human life on the planet were wiped out tomorrow, I’d estimate (pessimistically) it would take less than another 200 million years before another species gained a similar level of intelligence and began a new era of civilization (and perhaps as little as 10 m years, as some species are already quite intelligent). In fact, if the next species screws up, and gets themselves killed, I expect earth will get another go at it in another 10–200 million years, over and over again.

    On the other side of the equation, the sun will expand into a red giant and consume the earth in about 5 billion years. That gives us a whole lot of tries to get it right.







  • These are exactly the kind of concerns citizens should have in a free democracy because that’s how you keep your democracy free.

    I do hear you, and I know, and I agree… It’s just that I always expected to fight against the slow creep of totalitarianism. I expected to have to look out for veiled threats, or hidden signs of tyranny. I never expected to face overt, blatant totalitarianism. I never expected the US president to openly endorse white nationalist organizations. I never expected so much of the public to be on board with what are so clearly unethical policies, with an administration that closely mimics the rise of the Nazi party…

    If politics is a tug of war, I expected to have to constantly pull in the right direction, I didn’t expect the other side to light the rope on fire.