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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 27th, 2023

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  • I hate to say this, but it’s too fucking late for any sort of electoral solution, at least on a national level. At this point we need to develop local capacity to secure our progressive enclaves in liberal states and big metropolitan areas. This means rooting out the conservative factions within our police and firing bad actors, as well as training community-based self-defense forces. We also need to build more effective local resilience and mutual aid networks so that the Federal government can’t dangle emergency aid over us when pandemics and climate-related disasters recur, as they frequently will. We need politicians who will defend our territory, boundaries and values, and fight to discontinue the tremendous subsidy we pay to MAGA territories. We need more self-sufficient economies that trade primarily with healthy, rights-respecting economies in Canada and Europe. It’s a heavy lift and unfortunately I don’t see anyone up to the task right now, as even Bernie, Warren, and AOC are stubborn institutionalists who will continue trying to work within the system even as it works against them and their constituents.









  • If you look at the election prediction history graph on Nate Silver’s substack, you see an upwards trajectory for Trump/Vance ever since the vice-presidential debate. That was also when the “Republicans are weird” narrative that was working so well for Harris/Walz abruptly left the discourse. And I believe that what happened was that Republicans who were embarrassed by Vance as well as Trump had a moment like you describe where he suddenly didn’t seem so unrelatable and that right there sunk the Dems… as much as it pains me to admit it, because I’d much rather have a party that wins on the issues and communicates clearly how insane and risky it was to vote for literal autocracy, the Harris campaign probably made the wrong choice with Walz and never should have stopped mocking Republicans for being “weird.”


  • The problem, I believe, is that most Democrats are institutionalists who will defend the rule of law even when it means handing the reigns over to a group who have openly declared hostility towards it. They are also afraid that using any kind of force to stop Trump and his cronies will trigger violent rebellion and they know who owns most of the guns in this country. They’re playing a trolley problem game but because they don’t really have progressive values they aren’t putting, say, Ukraine, Palestine and the entire fucking climate on the “peaceful transfer of power” track.

    We need a party with higher values than just “defending institutions.”


  • I would go so far as to say that this has always ben the plan, at least this time around. I find it highly suspicious that Trump has been the target of assassination attempts by republicans twice (plus a foreign attempt on his life) already. We’re being prepared to accept this as expected when it finally happens, and it has to happen in order to give Vance the pretext to implement martial law and usher in the high-tech Handmaid’s Tale scenario his patrons want. Trump is their useful idiot; but useful only because he is populist and charismatic enough to get them in power via ordinary electoral process. Once they suspend that process entirely they no longer need him and in fact he becomes a liability; offing him kills two birds with one stone.


  • I know that most progressives are just crying in their beer and looking for someone in their party or an adjacent political group to blame, but why isn’t more attention being brought to the many many efforts by Republicans and their overseas allies to corrupt the election and disenfranchise Democrats? I’m disgusted by the institutionalism that leads our leaders to call and congratulate the fascists rather than holding our own rallies to demand accountability for election irregularities.



  • There are a bunch of reasons why this could happen. First, it’s possible to “attack” some simpler image classification models; if you get a large enough sample of their outputs, you can mathematically derive a way to process any image such that it won’t be correctly identified. There have also been reports that even simpler processing, such as blending a real photo of a wall with a synthetic image at very low percent, can trip up detectors that haven’t been trained to be more discerning. But it’s all in how you construct the training dataset, and I don’t think any of this is a good enough reason to give up on using machine learning for synthetic media detection in general; in fact this example gives me the idea of using autogenerated captions as an additional input to the classification model. The challenge there, as in general, is trying to keep such a model from assuming that all anime is synthetic, since “AI artists” seem to be overly focused on anime and related styles…