A new Harris poll for The Guardian found that the majority of Americans believe that the U.S. is in a recession.
This is patently untrue.�
The U.S. is experiencing an ...
Did you read the article? Now, before you reflexively downvote me for saying something you didn’t want to hear, hear me out.
Whether an economy is “good” or “bad” is measured through several metrics. These are—
Stock index performance
Unemployment rate
Inflation rate
Wage growth
People’s personal financial situation
Now, stock index performance generally benefits the wealthy more than it benefits the average American, however, the article does note that the number of Americans who own 401(K) investments, which benefit from better stock index performance, has increased significantly in recent years.
The unemployment rate is definitely tied to middle-class wealth. It means that everyone who is looking for a job is eventually able to find a job. Unemployment is low, and this is good for the middle and lower class.
The inflation rate is currently just north of 3%. This is above the target 2% rate but not by much, and certainly less than the 7-9% inflation experienced immediately post-pandemic, and the US cooled inflation down to that level far faster than other Western economies (e.g. the UK and Eurozone). The inflation rate measures the price change of a basket of household goods, and the burden of high inflation is basically borne by the entire middle class. Low inflation is good for the middle and lower class.
I don’t believe the article discussed wage growth, but wage growth has actually outpaced inflation in recent years due to a surge in worker power. This requires little introduction. The problem is that when people’s wages rise, they give all the credit to themselves and think “Well, I’m just one of the hardworking and lucky ones.” This is not true. A lot of people are getting pay raises, and employers are more willing to be generous with pay raises when the economy is good. In short, people credit increases in wages to their own hard work but blame inflation on the Government.
As stated in the article, most of the people surveyed reported that their personal financial situation improved, but they still think the overall US economy is bad. If this isn’t definitive proof of what I’ve said earlier (that the economy is good and people just don’t know it), I don’t know what is
Economists are not stupid. They know that economic growth is driven by the everyday consumer and that a good economy is one that benefits the average American, not just billionaires. Understand that people on the news fixate on stock indexes because it’s a single number that requires little explanation and leaves no room for nuance. When people with decades of education and experience in economics say the economy is good, we’d best listen. Rejecting this conclusion is the same Dunning-Kreuger-laced thinking that causes climate change deniers to deny the existence of that phenomenon.
Sorry, if this feels legit impossible to believe. I live in SoCal and literally everyone I know is struggling or has commented about how much more expensive rent is and how impossible it seems to get by compared to just a few years ago. Lots of people have to live with their parents/families now even though they work full time.
What do you or “economists” call it when no one (exaggerating here in case it’s not obvious) in a city/state can afford rent to live on their own like they used to be able to? Put another way, what do you call it when six figures used to mean stability and now it means paycheck to paycheck for many families?
You’re seriously saying people are just confused about their finances? What about all the articles about people not buying new cars and not buying this or that anymore? Why do economists think that is? That’s just a coincidence?
Rich people are doing good. Poor people are taking on credit card debt to buy basic groceries. People haven’t seen raises in years, or got them only on paper (for example, I got a raise, and then in the next breath got my hours cut to where it was actually a pay cut).
If people are struggling to buy basic necessities, they won’t spend on other things, which will slow the economy.
the number of Americans who own 401(K) investments, which benefit from better stock index performance, has increased significantly in recent years
This is the same as saying lots of Americans have bank accounts. The accounts could be empty.
the US cooled inflation down to that level far faster than other Western economies (e.g. the UK and Eurozone)
The US did not experience the same economic effects as the UK. The UK performed Brexit which raised the cost of goods by definition, and had their price of fuel skyrocket due to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. The US is not dependent on Russian oil.
wage growth has actually outpaced inflation in recent years
EDIT: Wages with respect to productivity have been stagnant since 1970, but today’s average worker produces far more value for their employer. Employers are not sharing their increased profits with their workers, who are making roughly the same as workers from 1970. So yes, workers got a very slight real increase in pay, but are still vastly underpaid.
The inflation rate measures the price change of a basket of household goods
No, it doesn’t. That’s the consumer price index.
employers are more willing to be generous with pay raises when the economy is good. In short, people credit increases in wages to their own hard work but blame inflation on the Government.
No, increased wages are not because bosses decided to be nice. Corporate profits reached records during the pandemic, paying more reduces profits. Unions and displays of labor activism in the US have expanded significantly in the past few years. People are demanding higher wages from their employers. The entire purpose of the Federal Reserve is to combat inflation. Action by the government is the only way to control inflation.
Economists are not stupid.
That’s debatable, but some are certainly self-serving.
Tell me how high interest rates benefits those who have to borrow money for school, medical expenses, a car, or a first home.
It seems like you read but didn’t understand what I said.
When you say that the US “didn’t experience the same economic effects as the UK”, I respond with “it doesn’t matter”. It doesn’t matter why the US didn’t experience a worse economy, just that it didn’t. When you say that wages lagged behind inflation for the 50 years prior, I absolutely dispute that conclusion. It seems like you saw someone else talk about it, thought “this sounds true”, and then didn’t look at the data, which is much more mixed:
You think that the “consumer price index” is different from inflation. The consumer price index is a method for measuring inflation, and you being confused by this honestly makes me want to dismiss all remaining credibility you held. This is like if I said “temperature scales measure how hot or cold something is” and you replied, “no, that’s a thermometer”.
I never claimed that wages increase because employers are “nice”. I assert that employers are more willing to give higher wage increases in good economic conditions, because such conditions give workers more bargaining power. Employers in better economic conditions have more money to give to wage increases, so workers are more able to extract that money through wage negotiations. Compare this to bad economic conditions when employers are going to be much less able to give raises or when the labour force is shrinking, causing supply in the labour market to outpace demand (driving down wages). If the economy is growing, there is more demand for labour, and thus suppliers of labour (workers) are able to demand higher prices (wages). Is this really so hard to grasp?
I was drafting a response but I see your edit now. This report seems to echo a lot of what you’re saying, but it lays blame with several far more long-term and structural problems. It certainly would be difficult to argue that we’re doing as well as we were doing in the post-war boom of the middle 20th century, but that’s like saying things are not currently good because they were better in the past. While technically true, it kinda misses the point and distorts the definition of “good.”
You’re right, but so are the people saying that things are significantly improving. Coincidentally that’s exactly what the article is talking about.
Did you read the article? Now, before you reflexively downvote me for saying something you didn’t want to hear, hear me out.
Whether an economy is “good” or “bad” is measured through several metrics. These are—
Now, stock index performance generally benefits the wealthy more than it benefits the average American, however, the article does note that the number of Americans who own 401(K) investments, which benefit from better stock index performance, has increased significantly in recent years.
The unemployment rate is definitely tied to middle-class wealth. It means that everyone who is looking for a job is eventually able to find a job. Unemployment is low, and this is good for the middle and lower class.
The inflation rate is currently just north of 3%. This is above the target 2% rate but not by much, and certainly less than the 7-9% inflation experienced immediately post-pandemic, and the US cooled inflation down to that level far faster than other Western economies (e.g. the UK and Eurozone). The inflation rate measures the price change of a basket of household goods, and the burden of high inflation is basically borne by the entire middle class. Low inflation is good for the middle and lower class.
I don’t believe the article discussed wage growth, but wage growth has actually outpaced inflation in recent years due to a surge in worker power. This requires little introduction. The problem is that when people’s wages rise, they give all the credit to themselves and think “Well, I’m just one of the hardworking and lucky ones.” This is not true. A lot of people are getting pay raises, and employers are more willing to be generous with pay raises when the economy is good. In short, people credit increases in wages to their own hard work but blame inflation on the Government.
As stated in the article, most of the people surveyed reported that their personal financial situation improved, but they still think the overall US economy is bad. If this isn’t definitive proof of what I’ve said earlier (that the economy is good and people just don’t know it), I don’t know what is
Economists are not stupid. They know that economic growth is driven by the everyday consumer and that a good economy is one that benefits the average American, not just billionaires. Understand that people on the news fixate on stock indexes because it’s a single number that requires little explanation and leaves no room for nuance. When people with decades of education and experience in economics say the economy is good, we’d best listen. Rejecting this conclusion is the same Dunning-Kreuger-laced thinking that causes climate change deniers to deny the existence of that phenomenon.
Sorry, if this feels legit impossible to believe. I live in SoCal and literally everyone I know is struggling or has commented about how much more expensive rent is and how impossible it seems to get by compared to just a few years ago. Lots of people have to live with their parents/families now even though they work full time.
What do you or “economists” call it when no one (exaggerating here in case it’s not obvious) in a city/state can afford rent to live on their own like they used to be able to? Put another way, what do you call it when six figures used to mean stability and now it means paycheck to paycheck for many families?
You’re seriously saying people are just confused about their finances? What about all the articles about people not buying new cars and not buying this or that anymore? Why do economists think that is? That’s just a coincidence?
Rich people are doing good. Poor people are taking on credit card debt to buy basic groceries. People haven’t seen raises in years, or got them only on paper (for example, I got a raise, and then in the next breath got my hours cut to where it was actually a pay cut).
If people are struggling to buy basic necessities, they won’t spend on other things, which will slow the economy.
Did you even read the post you are responding to???
Most of what you said is false when generalised to the entire economy.
It might be true for you. It’s not true for most other people. You are trying to defeat a statistic with an anecdote.
This is the same as saying lots of Americans have bank accounts. The accounts could be empty.
The US did not experience the same economic effects as the UK. The UK performed Brexit which raised the cost of goods by definition, and had their price of fuel skyrocket due to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. The US is not dependent on Russian oil.
EDIT: Wages with respect to productivity have been stagnant since 1970, but today’s average worker produces far more value for their employer. Employers are not sharing their increased profits with their workers, who are making roughly the same as workers from 1970. So yes, workers got a very slight real increase in pay, but are still vastly underpaid.
No, it doesn’t. That’s the consumer price index.
No, increased wages are not because bosses decided to be nice. Corporate profits reached records during the pandemic, paying more reduces profits. Unions and displays of labor activism in the US have expanded significantly in the past few years. People are demanding higher wages from their employers. The entire purpose of the Federal Reserve is to combat inflation. Action by the government is the only way to control inflation.
That’s debatable, but some are certainly self-serving.
Tell me how high interest rates benefits those who have to borrow money for school, medical expenses, a car, or a first home.
It seems like you read but didn’t understand what I said.
When you say that the US “didn’t experience the same economic effects as the UK”, I respond with “it doesn’t matter”. It doesn’t matter why the US didn’t experience a worse economy, just that it didn’t. When you say that wages lagged behind inflation for the 50 years prior, I absolutely dispute that conclusion. It seems like you saw someone else talk about it, thought “this sounds true”, and then didn’t look at the data, which is much more mixed:
You think that the “consumer price index” is different from inflation. The consumer price index is a method for measuring inflation, and you being confused by this honestly makes me want to dismiss all remaining credibility you held. This is like if I said “temperature scales measure how hot or cold something is” and you replied, “no, that’s a thermometer”.
I never claimed that wages increase because employers are “nice”. I assert that employers are more willing to give higher wage increases in good economic conditions, because such conditions give workers more bargaining power. Employers in better economic conditions have more money to give to wage increases, so workers are more able to extract that money through wage negotiations. Compare this to bad economic conditions when employers are going to be much less able to give raises or when the labour force is shrinking, causing supply in the labour market to outpace demand (driving down wages). If the economy is growing, there is more demand for labour, and thus suppliers of labour (workers) are able to demand higher prices (wages). Is this really so hard to grasp?
That’s very much not true.
EDIT: I’ll update my previous comment for clarity
I was drafting a response but I see your edit now. This report seems to echo a lot of what you’re saying, but it lays blame with several far more long-term and structural problems. It certainly would be difficult to argue that we’re doing as well as we were doing in the post-war boom of the middle 20th century, but that’s like saying things are not currently good because they were better in the past. While technically true, it kinda misses the point and distorts the definition of “good.”
You’re right, but so are the people saying that things are significantly improving. Coincidentally that’s exactly what the article is talking about.